Sami

Thoughts on the Sleeping Beauty Paradox

Mon, 29 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Why I think that the thirder position is fallacious.

How much is a representative sample?

Tue, 23 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

A look into the relation between sample size and certainty, for binary outcomes.

Population- vs. individual-level differences

Sat, 09 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Imagine that a correlation is found between a biomarker and the presence or absence of a disease. It is proposed that this be used for diagnosis. Can it always?

(Betteridge’s law of headlines applies.)

Articles by Edwin Thompson Jaynes

Fri, 08 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

A few articles by Jaynes are now available on this website.

Confidence Intervals vs Bayesian Intervals

Fri, 08 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Article by Edwin Thompson Jaynes, 1976; original at: https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/articles/confidence.pdf

Abstract

For many years, statistics textbooks have followed this ‘canonical’ procedure: (1) the reader is warned not to use the discredited methods of Bayes and Laplace, (2) an orthodox method is extolled as superior and applied to a few simple problems, (3) the corresponding Bayesian solutions are not worked out or described in any way. The net result is that no evidence whatsoever is offered to substantiate the claim of superiority of the orthodox method.

What's Wrong with Bayesian Methods?

Fri, 08 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Article by Edwin Thompson Jaynes, April 1984; original at: https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/articles/bayesian.methods.pdf

Introduction

Our title is the title of a talk given in Cambridge on Feb. 3, 1984, by Professor G. A. Barnard. For him it was a question to be taken seriously, and answered seriously. But for us it is only a rhetorical question; for while we see many things in Bayesian methods that are still incomplete and in need of further technical development, we are unable to see anything basically wrong with them.

P-Values

Wed, 31 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

After our recent exploration of the pitfalls of confidence intervals, how about a little foray into the world of P-values?

Confidence Intervals

Sun, 07 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Confidence intervals (CIs) are possibly one of the most misunderstood concepts in statistics, and that’s saying something.

CIs are one of many approaches to interval estimation: that is, having decided on a model that is thought to explain how the data that we are seeing are generated, how to compute an interval that represents our estimate for one of the model’s parameters, along with the uncertainty that we have about it?

Panoramas

Sun, 07 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

360° panoramas